Understanding EM Information Needs During Severe Weather Events

For Emergency Managers, preparations for severe weather have always relied on accurate, clearly explained NWS forecasts. Though the NWS has made impressive strides in forecasting severe weather, there can still be a gap between the forecast information the service creates, and the response that EMs take after receiving that information. Understanding why this gap exists is vital to ensuring that coming improvements to the warning system in the form of FACETs are to succeed operationally. With the goal of learning the perspectives of the EMs involved in this process, this study uses the Critical Incident Technique to identify themes in how incidents involving weather went well, or not so well, for these EMs. Through our interviews with 11 emergency managers from a variety of regions east of the Rockies, five of whom were county EMs, two city EMs, two state EMs, and one EM each from military and school districts, we found that EMs follow a clear path from a low confidence, long term - heads up- on incoming impacts, down to detailed location and impact information that they often actively reach out for from the NWS. EMs also shared a common trust in the NWS, built through outreach and training programs over the years. However, EMs had trouble when they were faced with unpredictable events, such as rapidly forming tornadoes and wind events, and also reported disconnects in their understanding of some of the impacts of severe weather. In summary, EMs are already starting to work in a FACETs-friendly frame, and could be very responsive to the more accessible forecaster input proposed in the system. Additionally, products such as threat over time and PHI guidance could better communicate uncertainties to EMs during stressful events, while increased education of EMs through NWS outreach could improve their understanding of the types of impacts these storms can have.