Steve Zubrick's NWA President's Message – August 2010

I encourage all members and prospective members to consider attending all or a portion of the NWA's 35th Annual Meeting, October 2-7, 2010, in Tucson, Arizona. Erik Pytlak, Program Chair of this year's meeting, and his committee, have put together an excellent agenda to spotlight the Meeting's theme of "Fire and Ice: Science and Society". The preliminary program was just published in the August NWA Newsletter and updates will be posted on this NWA Web site at http://www.nwas.org/meetings/nwa2010/ and its links.

I'm looking forward to an exciting meeting! I hope to see you there.

Any questions/comments, please feel free to send email to me at: President@nwas.org.


Steve Zubrick's NWA President's Message – July 2010

In operational forecasting, how do we get to some future (hopefully improved) state of operations? A network of Doppler radars didn't just spring up. Implementing and maintaining our radars, satellites and other observing systems, and getting their data into forecast operations, requires tremendous planning from those in the weather community. As new technologies emerge, like for radar dual-polarization (soon) and phased array (down-the-road), focused and careful planning, and most importantly funding, are required. How does the weather enterprise develop priorities on choosing which technologies to implement? How do we transition weather research findings into operations; a process referred to as "research-to-operations" (R2O)? And how is that funding secured for developing new weather technologies and research; a difficult problem anytime, but especially during these austere times. This month I'll highlight one way future weather research projects are identified and prioritized.

A recently-released report from the National Research Council (NRC) "When Weather Matters: Science and Services to Meet Critical Societal Needs" attempts to identify future weather research and R2O issues. The NRC, founded in 1916 as a private, nonprofit institution, provides expert science and technology policy advice to elected leaders and policy makers in the Federal Government and to the public. Their reports carry clout on Capitol Hill and throughout various Federal agencies. This 146-page NRC report was funded jointly by NASA, NOAA and the National Science Foundation. It contains findings and recommendations from a special committee set up under the NRC's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC); the "Committee on Progress and Priorities of U.S. Weather Research and Research-to-Operations (R2O) Activities."

The committee was comprised of eight experts from across the weather enterprise representing academia, research and the private sectors. They met several times since July 2009, and interacted with nearly 50 experts in weather research and operations. The report was peer-reviewed by an independent group of weather experts. While the report isn't a "...comprehensive assessment of the state of U.S. weather research nor the transition of research findings into operations...", it does provide "...the committee's judgment and recommendations on the most pressing, high-level, weather-focused research challenges and R2O needs..." the U.S. faces.

Three broad areas are covered in the report: established and emerging needs, and socioeconomics. The report contains eight recommendations. Though funded by Federal Agencies, the report's authors believe the recommendations are relevant to all sectors in the weather enterprise; including agency decision makers, policy makers, research scientists, academia, the private sector, public and private user groups and even the general public. Four recommendations deal with areas previously identified as important high-value national goals but that have yet to be realized: 1) global non-hydrostatic coupled modeling, 2) quantitative precipitation forecasting, 3) hydrologic predictions and 4) mesoscale observations. Three recommendations deal with important, emerging issues: 5) predictions of "high impact" weather, 6) urban meteorology, and 7) renewable energy development. The eighth recommendation cuts across all of the previous seven recommendations: 8) improvement of socioeconomic research and capacity. This last recommendation addresses fundamental issues in determining how, when and why weather information (like warnings) is, or isn't, used.

Also, the last (8th) recommendation on socioeconomic issues supports the NWA Council's decision last year to form a new committee: the Committee on Societal Impacts of Weather and Climate, chaired by Kevin Barjenbruch. Last month's lead story in the NWA Newsletter (June 2010) focused on societal impact. I encourage you to read that short article that helps explain what "societal impact" is and how we in the operational weather enterprise are involved with it. This year's NWA Annual Meeting directly supports the need for considering societal impacts.

So, to better understand where weather research is likely headed in the coming years, I encourage you to read this report. A PDF version can be downloaded for free online (available at http://dels.nas.edu/Report/When-Weather-Matters-Science-Service/12888). The report's recommendations potentially can impact how we in the operational forecast community do business. Finally, the report calls for increased collaboration and dialogue among a wide range of disciplines and organizations to focus energies on developing priorities and defining specific actions for planning and executing future weather research and transitioning that research to operations. You can (and should) play a role in this collaboration and dialogue. Keep vigilant for opportunities to do so. Making your voice heard by those at the agency policy level can be a challenge. However, many Federal agencies (including NOAA) participate in and/or organize meetings of weather enterprise stakeholders, where they seek comments and feedback on a variety of issues, including weather research and R2O. One such meeting was held last March (2010) in Washington DC at NWS Headquarters.

Recently, on July 21, 2010, as a representative of the National Weather Service, I presented information on providing early warnings of tornadoes at a public briefing on Capitol Hill. The briefing, organized by the Congressional Hazards Caucus, featured short presentations from me, Dr. John Snow, Regents' Professor of Meteorology and Dean Emeritus, College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, the University of Oklahoma, and Dr. Roger Wakimoto, Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder. Prior to the briefing, I enjoyed several conversations with my fellow presenters, including a discussion with Dr. Wakimoto about the differing physical mechanisms for tornadoes that build "up" from the surface as opposed to those that descend from a storm. Dr. Snow, when asked by a Hill staffer what was needed to provide better lead times for tornado warnings responded that not only do we need improved observations (from satellites, better radars and mesonet data), but improved prediction models of storm-scale (1-10 km) phenomena are just as important. These improved models will require extraordinary increases in high performance computing, with "petaflop" machine performance necessary. Rapid, real-time data assimilation of the plethora of observations is also part of the modeling equation. Dr. Snow was also one of the eight weather experts who helped draft the NRC report "When Weather Matters..." reviewed earlier in this message.

Finally, I encourage each of you to consider attending all or a portion of our 35th NWA Annual Meeting, October 2-7, 2010, in Tucson, Arizona. Erik Pytlak, Program Chair of this year's meeting, and his committee, have put together an excellent program to spotlight the Meeting's theme of "Fire and Ice: Science and Society". I'm looking forward to an exciting meeting! I hope to see you there.

Any questions/comments, please feel free to send email to me: President@nwas.org.

Steve Zubrick's NWA President's Message – June 2010

The NWA Council met in hot Dallas, Texas, for its 2010 midyear meeting on 4–5 June.

NWA Council members at the 2010 midyear meeting in Dallas, Texas
NWA Council members present at the 2010 midyear meeting (l–r): Ruth Aiken, Steve Harned, Faith Borden, Jeff Waldstreicher, Steve Listemaa, John Gordon, Mike Vescio, Rusty Billingsley, Randy Graham, Jill Hasling, Bruce Thomas, Jeff Craven, Wendy Schreiber-Abshire, Pat Market, Elise Schultz, Jeff Evans, Steve Zubrick, John Scala and Bernard Meisner. Councilor Dave Freeman who took the photo is spliced in on the right.

There is a lot business that goes on with our Association, and it was good to see everyone face to face. I'd like to thank all of the Council members who participated in this meeting. We had a full agenda of items. The dedication and energy of the Council members who attended this meeting is why the NWA is the premier organization for operational meteorology. Being a volunteer organization, this participation often involves sacrifices of one's time, job and family. We are all proud of the work you do. One of the key discussion items at this year's midyear meeting was developing a more streamlined manner to handle the NWA's affairs. I'll have more details on this discussion in a future column, but during the meeting we discussed and developed a proposal for an "Executive Committee" that would consist of the NWA President, Vice President, President Elect, Secretary, Treasurer (voting members), and Immediate Past-President and Executive Director (non-voting). This committee will, in part, provide guidance on many of the day-to-day operations of the NWA, and they'll ultimately report to the full NWA Council. Over the next few months, we'll formalize the concept behind this Committee.

The NWA Council recently took swift action to review and comment on a high-visibility, potential adverse proposal by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). According to a request for information found in "ET Docket No. 10-123" by the FCC's Office of Engineering and Technology, the FCC is examining a proposal to open up use of the 1675–1710 MHz band to wireless broadband systems. According to the request for comment, this frequency band "...is allocated on a co-primary basis for federal and non-federal use for the Meteorological Aids Service and the Meteorological Satellite Service (Space-to-earth). Specifically, this band is used for downlinks from certain weather satellites and radiosondes (weather balloons) that are administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ...We (FCC) expect that this band is relatively lightly used, both geographically and temporally, and thus could be shared by others."

Ralph Ferraro, Remote Sensing Committee Chair and former NWA Council member, led efforts to investigate the proposal and worked with key NWA partners, to draft an "NWA Advocacy Letter." This letter noted that the NWA community had serious concerns on the proposed opening of the 1675–1710 MHz band, and that there could be serious repercussions on dissemination now and in the future of various remotely sensed data, including from weather satellites and radiosondes. On June 28, 2010, we submitted an "Advocacy Letter" to the FCC. A copy of that letter is available on our NWA Web site, NWA Advocacy page.

This year continues to see its share of significant weather events. The most tragic was the terrible flash flood on June 11 that killed 20 people. These people were camping in the popular Albert Pike Recreation Area in the Ouachita National Forest, located in Montgomery County in western Arkansas. This storm system was the same one that earlier on June 9 caused significant flash flooding in central Texas. On the night of the 11th, the Little Missouri River that runs through the Pike recreation area rose almost 20 ft in just a few short hours after six to seven inches of rain fell over just a few hours time. A record crest of 23.4 ft occurred on the Little Missouri in nearby Pike County near Langley, which shattered the previous record flood crest by nearly 10 feet. Even though there was advance notice of the potential for flash floods, (a flash flood watch was posted) and flash flood warnings and statements were issued by the Little Rock NWS Weather Forecast Office, warning campers of the flooding proved difficult because the flooding occurred in the middle of the night combined with the difficulty of effective communications to campers due to remoteness of the Pike campground. Already, the U.S. Forest Service, who runs this campground, has been asked by the U.S. Senate and House to work with the U.S. Geological Survey, NOAA and local and state officials "...to determine how to improve emergency warning systems for campground visitors at Albert Pike (Recreation Area)..."

The catastrophe caused by the Deepwater Horizon platform oil spill continues in the Gulf of Mexico. As response efforts continue, the beginning of hurricane season is a huge concern to recovery efforts. In addition to NOAA's Web site mentioned in last month's message, there is a joint Web site developed by NOAA, the EPA, the U.S. Coast Guard and the Department of the Interior that provides an interactive online mapping capability to provide near-real-time information on response efforts in the Gulf: www.geoplatform.gov/gulfresponse/. In addition, the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), comprised of government, academic and private partners, maintains a Web site: http://rucool.marine.rutgers.edu/deepwater/ containing a wealth of data on efforts to monitor the effects of the spill. Also, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has implemented an additional fixed point to its Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability text product, corresponding to the location of the Deepwater Horizon platform. More information on this new point, along with a fact sheet on how tropical systems could impact the spread of the oil spill, can be found on the main NHC Web site: www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

Finally, congratulations to NWA member Ray Ban, formerly of The Weather Channel, who was recently selected by NOAA's Administrator, Dr. Janet Lubchenco, as the new chair of NOAA's Science Advisory Board (SAB), the only federal external advisory committee charged with providing advice on long- and short-range strategies for research, education and the application of science to resource management and environmental assessment and prediction.

Any questions/comments, please feel free to send email to me: President@nwas.org.


Steve Zubrick's NWA President's Message – May 2010

Two thousand ten is turning out to be a year that weather forecasts and decision support services in major disasters are in the spotlight. In early May, extreme rainfall over several days totaling nearly 20 inches in some places inundated portions of Western and Middle Tennessee. Many rivers set new historic flood levels including a crest of nearly 52 feet in Nashville on the Cumberland River.

USGS hydrograph from the river gauge on the Cumberland River at Nashville showing a crest of about 52 feet, falling about 4 feet of the record
A hydrograph of the Cumberland River at Nashville during the historic May 2010 flood.
Source: NWS
The computed 48-hour rainfall "Average Recurrence Intervals" (ARI) for this event ranged upwards of over 1000 years. This is amazing considering that a 1000 year flood has only a 0.1% chance of occurring. A 100 year flood has a 1% chance of occurrence. (NWS offices in Memphis, Nashville and Louisville all have summaries of this event on their Web pages at www.weather.gov.)

Another terrible disaster occurred in the Gulf of Mexico with the tragic explosion and eventual sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil drilling platform on April 20–21 more than 40 miles off Venice, La. The subsequent oil spill's impact on coastal areas throughout the Gulf region is still unfolding and largely unknown. Commerce in the region has been severely disrupted, especially for commercial fishermen, charter boat operators and the region's tourism.

From the start of the oil spill incident, many divisions within NOAA began providing a host of services (see http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/
index.php). Weather forecast support involving all aspects of recovery and mitigation activities has been handled by many of NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) coastal offices along the Gulf. A joint federal command and operations center is in Houma, Louisiana. This center helps coordinate and facilitate operations planning and response efforts for the spill. The NWS Slidell office deployed an Emergency Response Meteorologist (ER-MET) to the command center shortly after the incident began. The on-site ER-MET provides detailed forecast decision support services to various government and industry responders. Specific types of forecasts include on-demand [site specific] (or "spot") forecasts for such operations as controlled oil burns, chemical dispersant operations, and many other air and water operations. NWS Southern Region Headquarters has helped coordinate augmented staffing support for the incident at affected NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that are providing critical support services including WFOs Slidell and Mobile.

The Meteorologist-in-Charge (MIC) at WFO Slidell and NWA member Ken Graham is the national contact for weather interviews. WFO Slidell's Web site provides an excellent resource for information related to weather and oceanographic support of this incident. The NWS Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) in Houston is coordinating forecast support for air operations in the region.

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is providing key support in NOAA's response effort. NCEP's unified surface synoptic analyses generated every six hours by three of its Prediction Centers (Tropical, Hydrometeorological and Ocean) provide the broad overview of weather over the spill region. In support to NOAA's National Ocean Service, who provides twice-daily trajectory forecasts of ocean currents in the spill area, NCEP is providing surface pressure and wind forecasts from special runs of a 4-member ensemble from their Climate Forecast System (CFS) run out to 45 days. NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center has detailed a NOAA Corp Officer to the Department of Homeland Security Headquarters in Washington, while two NCEP/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasters have been detailed to Alabama to assist in long term incident response.

After a slow start, the 2010 severe weather convective season became active after mid-April. Several major severe events have occurred including two tornado outbreaks with multiple killer tornadoes. NWS offices and centers, media outlets and private meteorologists were busy handling operations across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley during these outbreaks. During the May 10 outbreak, a tornado formed very close to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, home to many meteorologists and organizations including the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the Norman NWS WFO. This tornado later produced EF-4 damage as it moved east. While NWS offices were still conducting storm surveys for the May 10 event, preliminary survey results indicated at least two EF-4 tornadoes swept across the Moore and Norman areas of Oklahoma. On the 10th, both the SPC and, for Central Oklahoma, the Norman WFO, provided crucial guidance and services on the critical nature of storms expected that day.comparison between the OUN WRF model forecast of radar echos at 5 PM versus the actual echoes that occurred Norman WFO's MIC, Mike Foster, noted their local 4km WRF model runs that day consistently showed discrete convective storms forming west of the Oklahoma City metro area and moving rapidly through the metro region around 5 PM. The image shows a comparison of a 3-hour 4km WRF simulated reflectivity forecast for Central Oklahoma with its verifying radar, both valid at 5 PM CDT.

The uptick in severe weather is being watched carefully by project team members associated with the $11.9 million VORTEX2 program, which officially started May 1. They've already had several storm intercepts, including some of the tornadic storms on May 10 that moved east of Oklahoma City.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off on June 1. Preparedness activities are ramping up in coastal and inland areas by the NWS, media and private meteorology companies. Hurricane Preparedness Week runs May 23–29, 2010. Even before the start of the season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami implemented on May 15, 2010, several changes to their operations. Of note is that the lead times for issuing watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years. Thus, all tropical watches will be issued within 48 hours and warnings issued within 36 hours of the expected onset of conditions. Additional changes are being made to the format of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory. Also, a new hurricane wind scale will be used this season. The new scale called the "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale," uses the same wind speed ranges as the original Saffir-Simpson Scale, but no longer ties storm surge and flooding to each of the five hurricane categories. For details on these and other changes, consult the official NHC summary of product changes for the 2010 Hurricane Season and new hurricane wind scale press release that are available on NHC's Web site. The latest NOAA official Atlantic hurricane forecast will be released on May 27, and several of our corporate members have or will issue their own hurricane and tropical storm outlooks.

In climate news, according to an update (May 10, 2010) from NOAA's CPC, the current El Niño is weakening, and a rapid transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions is underway. Based on all observations, including those that show the sea surface temperatures are decreasing across much of the Pacific Ocean, and the latest dynamical model forecasts, CPC expects a rapid transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by early June 2010, which will continue into the start of Northern Hemisphere summer. And CPC notes there’s a growing possibility of La Niña conditions developing during the second half of 2010. [Latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is available here.]

The eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull, the topic of last month's column, continues. Recently, Transportation Ministers in the UK agreed that starting May 15, the UK Met Office, who handles the monitoring and movement of volcanic ash over much of Western Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean, will make its five day ash prediction charts available to the public via its Web site. Before the 15th, their public ash forecasts only went out to 18 hours. This change in policy, along with an increase in volcanic activity, caused more disruptions of longer durations at several airports. Again, this highlights the importance of meteorology in dealing with major volcanic eruptions.

Finally, congratulations to all graduating students of meteorology at both the undergraduate and graduate levels! Your hard work has paid off. Many of you are about to enter the workforce, while others embark on the pursuit of higher education. NWA student membership rates are available to those who have graduated in the past 12 months. Graduates please remember to renew your NWA membership as needed and update your information on the Member Portal so that we can stay in touch with you. For those graduates undecided or having difficulties finding suitable work, realize this transition in your life presents an opportunity to reflect and perhaps redouble efforts to identify your career path. Our Web site is continually refreshed with job announcements. Networking with others in the field is important. Our Annual Meeting in October is a way to meet and interact with other NWA members, and I encourage students to participate in the 3rd Annual Student Session.

Our NWA Council will conduct its Midyear meeting in Dallas, Texas, the first weekend in June. I'll have more to report as a result of this meeting next month.

Questions/comments, please feel free to send email to me: President@nwas.org.


Steve Zubrick's NWA President's Message – April 2010

In this month's column, I'm devoting space to something most of us rarely deal with: volcanoes and the vital role of meteorology. The mid-April 2010 eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull, a volcano that last erupted in 1821, and its subsequent adverse impact on global air travel, highlights the importance of meteorology in major volcanic eruptions.

Volcanic ash is extremely hazardous to aircraft in flight. The small ash particles, called "tephra" (i.e., microscopic pieces of rock and silica glass ejected during an eruption), can cause engine failure and are abrasive to aircraft surfaces. The small particle size makes the clouds difficult to see. In one of the most famous incidents, on December 15, 1989, a Boeing 747 (KLM Flight 867) descending through 25,000 ft flew into an ash cloud from Alaska's Mount Redoubt volcano, losing power in all four engines. After a harrowing several minutes of unpowered, uncontrolled descent, the cockpit crew successfully restarted all engines, gained control of the aircraft and eventually made a safe emergency landing in Anchorage with no injuries to passengers or crew. The aircraft however sustained $80 million in damage.

This month, to be safe, many flights with European destinations or connections were cancelled. The air space over most of Europe and Britain was shut down in response to the location and forecasts of volcanic ash movement. Below is an animation of ash plume movement observed by Meteosat sensors.

Media reports put the number of cancelled flights in the first 4 days alone of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption at nearly 63,000. During this air space disruption, European air carriers were collectively losing at least $200 million per day; U.S.-based air carriers had estimated losses of nearly $20 million a day. And as of this writing, it is unknown when the volcano will quiet down; the last time it erupted in 1821 it spewed ash for months.

Stranded global travelers faced difficulties. In addition to inconvenience and lost wages, the traveler could bear the added cost of extra hotel stays and food, canceled tours and rental contracts, etc., since it's not always clear how airlines should respond in "force majeure" events they have no control over (like an eruption). The flow of goods has also been disrupted. Many businesses are suffering. The Air Transport Association estimates direct losses by the aviation industry alone in the first five days after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption at nearly $1 billion.

With airlines, their customers and many businesses facing huge losses, meteorologists played a critical role in forecasting areas where ash was expected. These forecasts ultimately led to decisions on air space shutdowns. Tracking and forecasting volcanic ash movement is handled through a global network of nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) established by the United Nation's International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). 12-hr ash forecast by the London VAAC indicating where volcanic ash is expected to adversely impact aircraft The VAAC in London, run by the UK Met Office, handles the monitoring and movement of volcanic ash over the UK, Iceland, and the North Atlantic Ocean. Their forecasts are based in part on guidance from multiple dispersion models endorsed by the international meteorological community. Although the area the London VAAC monitors is relatively small, a great number of international flights operate within it. The graphic to the right shows a 12-hr ash forecast by the London VAAC coordinated with the Icelandic Meteorological Service showing areas and flight levels bounded by the red (surface to flight level-FL200) lines and green (FL200-FL350) lines, indicating where volcanic ash is expected to adversely impact aircraft.

While few doubt the wisdom of authorities initially grounding all planes, nonetheless, these ash forecasts by the VAACs had serious economic implications. As losses mounted, the aviation industry was eager to resume flying. Test flights were underway four days into the eruption. These flights were aimed at collecting data to better delineate the boundaries of the projected ash cloud to better understand the exact threat posed by the ash. Preliminary data suggested that, in some locations, the extent of the ash cloud measured in-flight didn't match well with the ash forecasts. Some are questioning the scientific reasoning and validity of these forecasts, since they formed the basis by which civil aviation authorities drastically limited air operations throughout Europe.

In the months ahead, a big story will likely be a debate between the aviation industry and the various VAACs on the accuracy of their ash forecasts; and whether the air space restrictions implemented during the first six days after initial eruption were necessary or justified. This debate might well end up in court. That would be interesting if it does, especially when matters of model uncertainty and validation arise. It gives one pause to consider how we use model guidance here to forecast significant weather events (like snowstorms) having major financial implications to a wide host of users.

So, can volcanic ash affect the United States as it did in Europe and Britain? Yes, especially across Alaska, Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest. Volcanic eruptions in North America could (and do) adversely impact U.S. aviation operations. The massive eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980 disrupted aviation operations in portions of the U.S. for weeks. Over $100 million in losses were experienced by the aviation industry when Alaska's Mt. Redoubt erupted from December 1989 through the first part of 1990.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the government agency responsible for issuing timely warnings of potential volcanic eruptions in the United States and its territories (for more information, go to: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/). They note the U.S. is volcanically active, with 169 active and dormant volcanoes in the Western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and Guam. Alaska is home to most of the active volcanoes. Within the conterminous U.S., the Cascade Range has more than a dozen large, active volcanoes. As of mid April, all U.S. volcanoes, with the exception of Kilauea in Hawaii, are at normal levels of background seismicity.

If a volcanic eruption should occur here, preparation and planning among various U.S. government agencies is in place to deal with it. The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) is responsible for interagency coordination and planning within the Federal Government. The latest OFCM interagency plan entitled "National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the ICAO International Airways Volcano Watch" (August 2007) is available online: http://www.ofcm.gov/p35-nvaopa/pdf/FCM-P35-2007-NVAOPA.pdf. Unlike what happened in Europe this past month, the U.S. airline industry has slightly more latitude on whether to fly near volcanic ash zones, based on a risk assessment, which is unlike the process used in Europe and Britain. Now might be a good time for all to review this document, as it contains details of what to expect from agencies like the National Weather Service and the Federal Aviation Administration during a volcanic episode. Alaska's Mt. Redoubt last eruption was only a little more than a year ago (March 2009).

So, as the Icelandic volcano showed, meteorologists play a large role in providing key information used by decision-makers and regulators within the aviation industry on where it is or is not safe for aircraft operations. In short, be prepared should a volcano erupt, especially if you travel through volcano-prone regions.

Questions/comments, please feel free to send email to me: President@nwas.org.


Photographs from the Iceland Volcano eruption at http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/more_from_eyjafjallajokull.html
 



For previous President's monthly messages, please see the Newsletters at http://www.nwas.org/newsletters/index.php.