Steve Zubrick's NWA President's Message – February 2010

Wow! What a crazy winter it’s been! I’ve worked for the National Weather Service (NWS) in the Washington D.C. area for nearly 25 years, and have never experienced as many big snowstorms (3) in one season as we’ve had this winter. Two back-to-back storms in early February within five days of each other brought portions of the region to a near standstill. Prodigious amounts of snow have fallen not only across the Mid-Atlantic states, but in many locations, especially across the southern tier of states. Forecasters and media have been challenged to predict these massive storms.

This 2009-10 winter season is already one for the record books. Seasonal snowfall records were smashed, not only here in D.C., but in Baltimore, Maryland, Wilmington, Delaware, Philadelphia and Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Many other observers (e.g., NWS Cooperative observers) are likely approaching record totals. In one storm alone, on February 5-6, two foot snow totals were common in the D.C. area. Our office in Sterling, Virginia, officially measured over 32 inches! Taking snow measurements during these winter storms proved a challenge at times. Below, our intrepid meteorologist intern (Kevin Witt - 5' 10") wades through snow nearly three feet deep to get representative measurements outside our office during blizzard conditions on February 10 (photo background: the base of our WSR-88D tower).

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I salute everyone who braved treacherous conditions to meet their duty to provide customers and the public with the best forecasts and broadcasting support possible. I’ve heard many stories of forecasters, media and other support staff manning their posts nearly round-the-clock. While winter conditions were severe, loss of life was low, no doubt due to the services that many of you provided.

In Washington D.C., the early February storm caused an unprecedented 4-day shutdown of the Federal Government, idling nearly 230,000 federal workers from Monday - Thursday; estimated by some officials to cost roughly $100 million per day in lost productivity. The U.S. House cancelled its sessions. When the Federal Government attempted to resume work on Friday, February 12, the region’s transportation network was still not ready. Massive gridlock and commuting delays ensued during the Friday evening rush hour that AAA compared to those commuting jams experienced during the 9/11 disaster.

It's been a rough winter this season, owing to the El Niño conditions and active southern jet stream and combined with the anomalous negative phase Arctic Oscillation (AO). Heavy precipitation; snow, rain and ice, fell across many sections of the U.S. On December 18-19, 2009 a major snowstorm struck the Mid-Atlantic states region, dumping nearly two feet of snow in the Washington-Baltimore area.

Significant winter storms were common especially across the southern tier of the CONUS as the (inset) map of various NWS watch/warnings/advisories (WWA) shows for the late January 2010 storm system. So far in early 2010, FEMA has made four Major Disaster Declarations for states in the Mid-Atlantic due to severe winter storm conditions caused by the mid-December 2009 snowstorm, and two Emergency Declarations for January 2010 winter storms that impacted Arizona and Oklahoma.

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Other snowfall records fell. Wichita Falls, Texas, eclipsed its all time seasonal snowfall record dating back over 50 years. Oklahoma City is a few tenths of an inch shy of its all time seasonal snow record. And Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) in Texas had just over 11 inches of snow on February 11 breaking all-time records for a single calendar day. During the 24 hours ending on 4 a.m. Friday February 12, 12.5 inches of snow fell at DFW making that the greatest 24-hour snowfall on record, and they need just a few more inches to break their all-time season snowfall record.

Although the Northeast has not had much snow over the past few seasons, Burlington, Vermont, on January 2-3 managed to break its single storm snowfall record when nearly 33 inches fell over a 35 hour period. However, this storm featured quite localized snowfall amounts across the Champlain Valley; nearby Plattsburg, New York, 20 miles west of Burlington, only received 7 inches. This proved a challenge to forecasters.

Many of this season’s significant winter storms featured blizzard conditions. Blizzards can produce life-threatening conditions for those venturing outdoors unprepared. The seemingly frequent issuance of Blizzard Warnings by NWS offices kept media outlets busy getting the message out. Many media outlets went to "wall-to-wall" in their coverage of these life-threatening storms. While blizzards are more common in the mountains of the West, the Great Plains and along the coastal Northeast U.S., issuance of Blizzard Warnings in areas unaccustomed to them created additional challenges to both forecasters and the media. In central Maryland, over two dozen persons were stranded during blizzard conditions associated with the 3rd major winter storm that struck the Mid-Atlantic states region February 9-10.

A few events challenged forecasters. Note in the WWA map (inset) valid at ~0300 UTC on January 29, 2010 that the D.C. region is not under any winter storm watch. However, they ended up getting warning levels (5 inches) of snow by the end of the next day (January 30). And in a summary of the December 24, 2009 Christmas Eve Blizzard that struck portions of central Oklahoma, forecasters there faced challenges predicting that storm system would ultimately produce blizzard conditions.

Still, I was amazed how much lead time was afforded to the public by the timely issuance of long-lead Winter Storm Watches and subsequent Winter Storm (or in some cases Blizzard) Warnings for many of these major winter storms. Some winter storm warnings were posted nearly 30 hours in advance; while watches were issued nearly 48 hours out.

As good as these long lead times were, there is still much to learn in how we both characterize and express uncertainty and unpredictability of significant weather events. The National Research Council (NRC) report Completing the Forecast issued in 2006 on this topic offered nine recommendations for the entire Weather Enterprise to act upon (including NWS, academia, private sector and the media). Recently, an ad hoc committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (referred to as "ACUF"), of the American Meteorological Society’s Board of Enterprise Communication, developed a draft planning document that furthers this topic. This draft called, “A Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information,” is available for comment ( http://www.ametsoc.org/boardpges/cwce/docs/BEC/ACUF/2010-01-Plan.pdf ). I encourage all to review this plan. Provide feedback by March 31, 2010 directly to the ACUF by sending it to: acufplan@gmail.com

Finally, I hope you will consider presenting and sharing your winter-related research on storms that are now part of this record-setting anomalous winter season at our 35th Annual Meeting in Tucson, Arizona, in October. There’s much we can learn from each other about this winter! I also encourage you to recognize your fellow NWA members who have made significant contributions to operational meteorology by nominating them for a 2010 NWA award (www.nwas.org/awards/index.php).

Please feel free to contact me at anytime. My email is President@nwas.org

Steve Zubrick's NWA President's Message – January 2010

I am honored to serve as your NWA President for 2010. It's humbling to see the list of former NWA Presidents, including Vince Oliver, Joe Schaefer (former SPC Director), Les Lemon, Ken Crawford, Bill Read (NHC Director), and the late Rod Scofield and late Dr. Jim Moore. I will continue the work set forth by them and by previous NWA Councils to provide increased services and guidance to members in the areas of education and professional endeavors. We have many challenges as an organization as we strive to meet the needs of our members. Throughout the year, I'll highlight our efforts and plans to improve and enhance your NWA experience.

Our NWA mission is simple: "Support and Promote Excellence in Operational Meteorology and Related Activities." Most of us are involved in weather forecasting, spanning a wide range of careers. Regardless of whether you are a forecaster, educator, communicator, researcher, service or instrumentation provider, a student, a retiree, or serve in the military, I, along with the entire NWA Council, believe strongly that you will benefit professionally by your continued support of and membership in the NWA.

Weather forecasting is fun, exciting, yet challenging. I'm fortunate to work with a dedicated group of meteorologists and support personnel in my position as Science Operations Officer (SOO) here at the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Virginia. I work operational shifts occasionally to maintain proficiency and relevancy in all aspects of operational forecasting. Every shift offers its own challenges. While most are involved with thinking through a forecast or dealing with equipment and/or personnel issues, sometimes it's another challenge all together. Getting to work can be a challenge when a foot of snow or flooded road stands between you and the office. Recently, members from the Federal and private sector were called upon to deploy coastal flood water level sensors around the Hampton Roads area of Southeast Virginia as 45 knot winds and heavy rain hammered that area during last November's (2009) storm – combined Nor'easter/Tropical Storm Ida. Data received from these water level sensors will help improve coastal flood predictions.

One challenge I face as NWA President is to facilitate how our organization can best reach its members and in some way "support and promote" YOUR excellence in operational meteorology. My charge to you: be passionate about your career and enjoy what you do! The NWA stands ready to serve and assist you. I implore you to embrace the challenge of the NWA mission: "...Excellence in Operational Meteorology..." A long journey begins with a first step. Decide today what your first step is. There is a host of on-line, on-demand training in a wide range of meteorology subjects. Our NWA Professional Development Committee Web page offers a host of links and information to help you get started.

One notable enhancement for NWA members was the introduction late last year (Fall 2009) of a "Member Portal," a gateway to a suite of Web-related services available only for NWA members. Frankly, this was long overdue. After much hard work by NWA Councils over the past several years, we finally achieved success. Thanks go to many people involved with this project, including our last three NWA Presidents, Mike Vescio (2009), Dr. John Scala (2008) and Alan Gerard (2007), as well as our administrative team in Raleigh led by Executive Director Steve Harned and Assistant Executive Director Ruth Aiken. An interesting result so far is that nearly 75% of members who have renewed opted for electronic distribution of NWA publications. In the coming year, my goal will be to enhance our Web presence, especially the Member Portal section. This effort is in its beginning stages. I welcome your comments on it.

Our 35th Annual Meeting will be held in Tucson from October 2–7, 2010 at the Marriott Tucson University Park Hotel, located in the heart of the University of Arizona. This year's theme is "Fire and Ice; Science and Society." The Program Committee is busy planning to make this year's meeting a truly excellent and fun experience. The 2010 Annual Meeting, a great place to network with others in our field, will emphasize ongoing and emerging interactions between the branches of weather and water enterprise, including the private sector, media, academia and government. In particular will be the annual Broadcaster's Workshop and DVD swap, and the Third Annual Student's Session – both on Sunday, October 3. If you're a broadcaster or student, please seriously consider attending the Sunday sessions!

For students: you're the future of operational meteorology. Embrace this realization. Strive to excel in your studies. Your hard work now will lead you to a fulfilling career. President Abraham Lincoln said: "The best thing about the future is...it comes...one day at a time." Put forth a quality effort each and every day. You'll be rewarded in the long run. Make a name for yourself; and get your name known to others in the field. Network not only with other students, but with professionals in the field. Learn as much as you can about employment opportunities. The NWA can put you in touch with members in your area who are willing to talk about their careers. We frequently update the jobs section on our Web page. If you have a local NWA chapter, attend the meetings. Also, attending NWA regional and annual meetings is a great way to make contacts and network. Some advice – if you attend a professional meeting, besides listening to the talks, go in the hallways during breaks and talk with other attendees. While it can be intimidating to go up to someone you don't know and introduce yourself, overcome the reluctance to do so. Who knows, you might be talking to your future employer or a new colleague!

Well, this year marks not only another year, but the beginning of a new decade for the NWA. I wish all of you the very best. I welcome our newly elected 2010 NWA Councilors and Officers and look forward to working with the Council. We'll do our best to provide education and professional development resources to you through the coming years. Please feel free to contact me at anytime. My email is president@nwas.org.


NWA President Mike Vescio's Message for December 2009

As we come to the close of another year it's a good time to reflect upon the many things that we can be thankful for. I am very thankful for my family who were quite understanding of the extra work involved in serving as President of the NWA this year. I am grateful for having such an excellent Council and Executive Committee to work with in 2009. This group of dedicated professionals tackled some difficult issues throughout the year, always with the membership and long term health of the organization in mind. The cohesiveness of this group was impressive, and as a result we were able to accomplish our primary objectives of developing: a new strategic road map, a members-only portal on the NWA Web page, and an electronic membership at a reduced dues rate.

Our NWA Annual Meeting in Norfolk, VA was quite successful in spite of these hard economic times, with just under 500 people attending. Our first ever evening session was held at the meeting and was well attended. The NWA leadership is aware of the increasing demands on our limited agenda space at our annual meetings and will be exploring ways to free up additional time (such as parallel sessions) in future meetings. This is a good problem to have as our meetings are becoming increasingly popular! I would be remiss if I did not recognize the hard work of the program committee in putting the Annual Meeting together. Although I have been program chair several times, the stakes are much higher now with the increased number of abstracts, and the planning process is a full year. The Executive Committee also worked at a feverish pace to prepare for the meeting and also worked long hours during the conference to ensure that everything went smoothly.

Before closing today, I would like to offer an invitation to all of you to volunteer. One of the many great things about the NWA is that there are opportunities in many areas to help out. If you are interested in a particular area, let the leadership know so we can get you more involved. I started out as a councilor, then vice president. I never thought that I would be NWA president, so admittedly when asked to run for president of the NWA, I was a little apprehensive. However, this has been a unique and very satisfying experience. Although my term as president is coming to a close, I can assure you that the NWA is positioned to make further great progress in the years ahead. We have already made decisions to help market the NWA and improve our name recognition. Under the leadership of incoming President Steve Zubrick, we will look at ways to improve our financial health and increase member services.

As I sign off on my last president's message, I want to thank all of you for your support and confidence throughout the year. My goal was to make progress this year for our members. I hope you can agree that the NWA leadership was able to accomplish that goal.

On behalf of the entire NWA Council, I wish you all a joyous Holiday Season and a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

Please send in your comments, concerns, questions or suggestions at anytime to president@nwas.org.

NWA President Mike Vescio's Message for November 2009

As I sit down to write this month's address I can't help but reflect on the 34th Annual Meeting that took place in Norfolk, Virginia in October. For me the meeting was a bit dichotomous. As NWA president there is a lot of building momentum leading up to the annual meeting and a tremendous sense of relief and accomplishment once it is over. On the other hand, these meetings have been a tremendous opportunity for me to learn about the great things others are doing in the profession. I have many wonderful takeaways from this year's conference that I will implement in my office in 2010. It's also the one chance in a year I get to network with the many friends and colleagues I have established over the years through attending the NWA annual meetings. So despite the relief I felt on Thursday afternoon, it was also difficult for me to see the conference come to an end.

This year's meeting was outstanding. The program for the general sessions was very diverse and all sectors of our profession were represented in the agenda. Over 100 students attended the student session on Sunday, and the broadcaster workshop was also very successful. We held our first ever evening session on Wednesday which was well attended, and our keynote presenters from NOAA/NWS and the military were very impressive. The bowling outing on Tuesday night was extremely popular and fun and had people talking the next day! I would like to thank the many people who worked for a year or more to make this meeting a success. The NWA executive staff, program committee, and Council all worked hard to ensure the best possible conference.

If you have yet to attend an annual meeting, I highly encourage you to give one a try. You don't have to take my word for it. Talk to a colleague who has attended one and I am sure you will receive positive feedback. The program committee for the 35th Annual Meeting in Tucson, AZ is already very hard at work planning next year's conference. The host facility and location are fabulous, so please plan on attending.

Please send in your comments, concerns, questions or suggestions at anytime to president@nwas.org.

Mike Vescio
President

NWA President Mike Vescio's Message for October 2009

September is a wonderful month in Pendleton, Oregon. The weather is dominated by sunny warm days and clear cool nights. It is a month that I look forward to with anticipation every year as the summer heat breaks and the days of 100+ degree temperatures end for the year. It is a month of transition as we head into the active and exciting winter months that lie ahead.

The NWA is transitioning as well, and it too is an exciting time for the organization. As John Scala described in the September newsletter, we are about to introduce some new services to the membership beginning this fall. Specifically, the NWA will launch a new member-only functionality on our Web site and offer an electronic membership at a reduced rate. Members will be able to manage and update their personal account profiles and receive the NWA Newsletters and Digests electronically. Voting and dues renewal can be done online as well. [See those new services at Web site: http://member.nwas.org]

For the vast majority of our members, the dues structure will be as follows:

  • $38 Regular Member
  • $18 Student/Retired/Military/Spouse and students for their first year after graduation
  • $12 Fee for Printed Publications (USA)

To provide some examples: A member who is interested in receiving electronic versions of the newsletters and Digests would only pay $38. If that same individual wanted printed publications as well they would pay $38 + $12 = $50. Someone who just graduated would still pay the student rate of $18 for electronic publications for the first year after graduation. A regular member couple could pay $56: $38 for the first member and $18 for the spouse and extra if they desired one or two hardcopies of publications. Electronic delivery of the publications results in a cost savings to the organization and the NWA leadership is passing on a portion of that savings to its members. The remaining savings will be used to balance our budget which has been operating in the red the past few years. This is a win-win situation for the NWA. Members receive enhanced services, an opportunity for paperless membership (and still paper if you want it), and the overall health of the organization is improved.

  • New members-only pages


  • Electronic membership at a reduced rate


  • Rolling Membership

One more membership feature is being introduced for 2010. The NWA is moving from a fixed calendar year membership to a rolling membership. This will have little impact on existing members who renew their memberships on time in the fall. Their membership will still run January through December. However, new members that join will have a membership that runs a year from the date that they join. For example, if a new member joins on April 1, 2010, their membership will run through March 31, 2011. The rolling membership makes more sense than the current setup and it eliminates the need for providing back issues of newsletters and Digests.

These new initiatives are merely the beginning of a longer range plan to improve member services. Additional enhancements are planned as our finances allow. One thing is for certain, the NWA leadership is committed to providing the best possible experience for our members. So if you are a member I hope that you to stay a member, and if you know someone who is thinking about becoming a member, there is no better time to encourage them to join!

Please send in your comments, concerns, questions or suggestions at anytime to president@nwas.org.

Modernizing the NWA, by Immediate Past President John Scala

Icannot recall a more exciting nor more demanding six months in my 14 years as a member of the National Weather Association. The focus of this intense activity has been essentially transparent to our membership but rest assured that the time and effort of slightly more than a dozen people will become readily apparent in the months ahead. So, what's the big deal? Take a look at the title of this article again...you will note the second half of it contains the words Modernizing the NWA. What does that mean? Read on my friends, read on.

Strategic planning...that phrase comes across as kind of dry, I know. However, the excitement lies in the consideration of the word strategic. Here's why...the National Weather Association's strategic plan (SP) was last updated in 2002. It represented a comprehensive, perhaps even exhaustive review of the state of the organization seven years ago. The landmark work identified specific objectives deemed crucial to the future success of the NWA, yet that SP was prepared without a mechanism for implementing its recommendations. Consequently, the vision became a set of extremely important, yet often intractable objectives.

The NWA Council approved a motion by the Executive Committee at the 2008 annual business meeting in Louisville to conduct a comprehensive review of our outdated SP. The purpose of this proposed assessment was twofold: 1) to evaluate the fiscal state of the organization and 2) to identify actions which would not only sustain but grow our membership in this challenging economic climate. The NWA hired a professional facilitator in early 2009 to assist in this critical review. The initial action on the part of the facilitator was to develop and distribute a confidential survey to the NWA Council and Executive Committee. The leadership was asked to respond with individual perceptions of the NWA's strengths, weaknesses, and key opportunities. It also asked each recipient to identify those attributes which were essential to the future growth and sustainability of the NWA.

The results of this survey were discussed over two days at the NWA's mid-year business meeting in June. Individual responses from the leadership identified common strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to the NWA's future. The outcome of this facilitated discussion was an agreed upon list of four key strategic priorities: 1) growing and maintaining our membership, 2) developing effective strategies for assuring the long-term financial stability of the organization, 3) enhancing our IT support and Web-based capabilities, and 4) expanding and enhancing membership services. It is my pleasure to announce that the NWA is already moving forward to address each of these key priorities through the construction of a roadmap that will guide the future of our organization.

The cornerstone of the new SP is enlarging and retaining our membership. Each of us represents not only the vitality of our organization but also the current and future face of operational meteorology, that special niche within the field of atmospheric sciences that makes the NWA a premier and indispensable organization. I hope that most if not all of our membership recognize that each of the aforementioned strategic priorities address singular aspects of a common goal: the future sustainability of the NWA. Within that concept, is the common desire to make the NWA more appealing, more responsive and more fiscally responsible to its members.

The NWA hired a consultant in August to direct the redesign of our Web page, arguably the most visual representation of "who we are and why we exist." This modernization effort will consist of not only a more appealing and functional home for the NWA on the Internet but also a portal to a members-only site that will provide online and timely access to NWA publications, individual profiles and an avenue for a host of NWA member services. In concert with this change will be a new tiered membership dues structure that will allow members to select paper only delivery, electronic only delivery or a combination of both for individual receipt of NWA publications. The driving force behind this offering is the implementation of a more fiscally responsible as well as environmentally sensitive position for the NWA on behalf of its members.

The modernization of the NWA will occur in well-defined phases over the months and perhaps years ahead. A summary of these actions including the implementation of the new SP were presented during welcoming remarks on Monday at the Annual Meeting in Norfolk. Additional information will be provided in future newsletters and with the 2010 dues renewal statements. I want to congratulate the members of the NWA Executive Committee, Council, and Finance Committee for their vision, dedication and energy to this exciting effort.

John R. Scala
Immediate Past President
Chair, Strategic Planning Committee




For previous President's monthly messages, please see the Newsletters at http://www.nwas.org/newsletters/index.php.