2015 Agenda

NWA's 2015 Annual Meeting
Preliminary Agenda


NWA 40th Anniversary
Power of the Past; Force of the Future


Saturday, 17 October 2015
Sunday, 18 October 2015
Monday, 19 October 2015
Tuesday, 20 October 2015
Wednesday, 21 October 2015


Saturday, 17 October 2015

• Climate Workshop (Click Here for more information)
• Teacher & Public Safety Workshop: Weather Safe Schools
Agenda | Poster
• Scholarship Golf Outing

Time Event
11:30 – 1:00 PM Lunch
1:00 PM Tee Time

Sunday, 18 October 2015

• Broadcast Meteorology Workshop

Time Presentation & Presenter
8:30 – 8:35 AM Welcoming Remarks
Elizabeth Page

8:35 – 8:45 AM Opening Remarks
Miles Muzio & Mike Goldberg

8:45 – 9:00 AM Welcome to Oklahoma City
Damon Lane
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:00 – 9:15 AM Probability of Precipitation: What is the Chance That People Get it?
Alan Sealls
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:15 – 9:30 AM Forecast Uncertainty: Giving A Great Weather Forecast Even When It's Unclear
Mike S Rawlins
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:30 – 9:45 AM Investigating Potential Relationships between Television Ratings and Weather
Garett Lewis
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:45 – 10:00 AM Changing Weather and Changing Climate -- Where (If?) The Two Shall Meet
Bud Ward
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

10:00 – 10:30 AM Coffee Break; Exhibits Open

10:30 – 10:45 AM "Do What I Say!...and What I Do": The role of weathercasts in modeling preparedness
Tyra L Brown
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

10:45 – 11:00 AM Building agility and resonance in the communication of short-term, high-impact weather information
Tom Bradshaw
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:00 – 11:15 AM The Internet Audience: Dealing With Viewer Feedback & Erroneous Social Media Weather Posts In The Digital Age
Amy Sweezey
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:15 – 11:55 PM Social Media Panel Discussion and Workshop

11:55 – 12:00 PM Sponsor Presentation: Baron

12:00 – 1:30 PM Lunch On Your Own

1:30 – 1:45 PM Saying What We, As Meteorologists, Really Mean
H. Michael Mogil
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

1:45 – 2:00 PM Miami: Ten Years Without A Hurricane
Ryan M Phillips
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:00 – 2:15 PM GOES-R: The New Generation Begins with Himawari-8
Jordan J Gerth
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:15 – 2:30 PM National Weather Service Hazard Message Simplification: A Roadmap for Change
Andy H Horvitz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:30 – 2:45 PM 674 Days: A Tale of Two Tornadoes in the Oklahoma City-Moore Area
Richard Smith
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:45 – 3:00 PM New Innovations in Severe Weather Detection and Communication Methods Utilized in the March 25, 2015 Oklahoma Tornadoes
Daniel R Gallagher
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

3:00 – 3:30 PM Coffee Break; Exhibits Open

3:30 – 3:45 PM The Color Conundrum: The Many Variations of One Watch or Warning
Lynnette E Grant
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

3:45 – 4:00 PM Back to the Future: Using Past Events to Anticipate Behavior During Severe Storms
Mark A Fox
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

4:00 – 5:15 PM Combined: Evaluating the Storm Prediction Center's new 5-category risk system for severe weather outlooks & Severe Weather Workshop
Greg Carbin
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

5:15 – 7:00 PM Announcements; Dinner On Your Own

5:00 – 6:00 PM Reception with Cash Bar

7:00 – 8:30 PM DVD Swap

8:30 – Student DVD Critique
• Student Workshop

Time Presentation & Presenter
10:25 – 10:30 AM Welcoming Remarks
Student Program Committee

10:30 – 11:00 AM Making Connections and Building Relationships
Christina Crowe; NWS HQ

11:00 – 11:30 AM Broadcast Media Careers
Pending: Brad Sowder; KOCO, Oklahoma City

11:30 – 12:00 PM Private Sector Meteorology Careers
Ken Carey; ERT, Inc

12:00 – 1:30 PM Lunch On Your Own

1:30 – 2:00 PM Graduate School and Academic Careers
Pat Market; University of Missouri

2:00 – 2:30 PM Responsible Social Media
Pending: Morgan Barry; NWA Social Media Committee

2:30 – 3:00PM Building Leadership
Paul Schlatter; NWS HQ

3:00 – 3:30 PM Coffee Break; Exhibits Open

3:30 – 5:15 PM Speed Mentoring
Facilitated by Ken Carey, ERT, Inc.

5:15 – 6:00 PM Speed Mentoring Dinner

6:00 – 6:30 PM Break

6:30 – 8:30 PM Master Class
Prior Registration Required

8:30 – Student DVD Critique
• Research Operations Nexus (RON)

Time Presentation & Presenter
5:00 – 6:00 PM Reception & Cash Bar

5:30 – 7:30 PM Research Operations Nexus

Monday, 19 October 2015

• Plenary I: 8:00 – 10:00 AM

Time Presentation & Presenter
8:00 – 8:30 AM Opening Remarks
NWA Annual Meeting Program Committee

8:30 – 9:00 AM Keynote: Building a Weather-Ready Nation: A National Weather Service Update
Louis Uccelini; NWS Director

9:00 – 9:15 AM The quality-value paradox: What irrational and imaginary users and forecasters can tell us about the so-called "real" world
Harold E Brooks
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:15 – 9:30 AM On Social Science and Operational Forecasting
Charles A Doswell III
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:30 – 9:45 AM A Tale of Two Blizzards: Communicating Risk and Forecast Uncertainty During Two Significant Northeast Storms and the Public Response That Followed.
Melissa M Di Spigna
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:45 – 10:00 AM Supporting High Impact Events with Supplemental Upper Air Observations
Lance T Wood
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Coffee Break: 10:00 – 10:30 AM
• Plenary II: 10:30 – 11:45 AM

Time Presentation & Presenter
10:30 – 10:45 AM GOES-R: The New Generation Begins with Himawari-8
Jordan J Gerth
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

10:45 – 11:00 AM The HRRR model: Current status and future upgrades
Edward J Szoke
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:00 – 11:15 AM After Dual Pol - What's Next for the WSR-88D?
Jessica A Schultz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:15 – 11:30 AM SHARPpy:
Kelton T Halbert
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:30 – 11:45 AM Student Weather Briefing, Sponsor Presentations, & Announcements
• Lunch On Your Own: 11:45 – 1:30 PM
• Concurrent I: Severe Weather & General Topics I: 1:30 – 3:00 PM

Time Severe Weather: Presentation & Presenter General Topics I: Presentation & Presenter
1:30 – 1:45 PM A System for Objectively Assessing Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities
Ariel E Cohen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
MetEd Satellite Training Resources at the Ready: Are You?
Wendy Abshire
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

1:45 – 2:00 PM The Summer Tornado Forecasting Dilemma
John A Hart
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Utilizing Existing Meteorological Networks to Estimate Wet Bulb Globe Temperature as an Operational Tool for Heat Related Activities
Bradley G Illston
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:00 – 2:15 PM Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornado Warnings: Prospects for False Alarm Reduction
John P Gagan
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Totable Weather Engagement and Enhancement Technology (T.W.E.E.T.)
April R Vogt
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:15 – 2:30 PM Developmental Work at the Storm Prediction Center in Pursuit of Tornadic Supercell Probability and Tornado Intensity Estimation Using a Severe Supercell Dataset
Bryan T Smith
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Castles in the Air: Meteorological Case Studies and Policy Implications of Bounce House Accidents
John A Knox
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:30 – 2:45 PM An Investigation of Environmental Factors to Determine Potential Non-Supercell Vortex Strength
Kenneth R Cook
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Toward Improved Consistency of Flash Flood Product Issuance in the Southwestern United States
Andrew A Taylor
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:45 – 3:00 PM An Observational Examination of Supercell and Squall Line Thunderstorm Interactions
Kevin M Wagner
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Learning Disorders and the Meteorological Community: Implications for Communication and Education
Matthew J Bolton
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Posters & Refreshments I: 3:00 – 4:30 PM

Poster ID Presentation & Presenter
AP-1 Increasing Situational Awareness of River Flooding by Applying a GIS Extent Mapping Approach
Jared S Allen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-2 National Weather Service Decision Support Tools: Communicating Impacts Effectively
Holly M Allen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-3 WITHDRAWN
Nocturnal Tornado Climatology in Ohio
Adam X Andresen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-4 Metamorphosis: The Evolution of Graphical Forecasts at Two Southern Plains Weather Forecast Offices
Ryan Barnes
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-5 Forecasting Economic Loss and Fatalities due to Natural Disasters
Scott E Baker
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-6 VISIT and SHyMet training in preparing forecasters for GOES-R
Dan Bikos
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-7 An Analysis of Severe Weather Reporting Sources
Scott F Blair
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-8 Operational uses of Spectrum Width to Improve Warnings for Quasi-Linear Convection in the Western Great Lakes
Brett Borchardt
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-9 Using NDVI Satellite Data to Identify and Document Destructive Hail Swaths
Joshua M Boustead
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-10 Real-time Suomi-NPP Green Vegetation Fraction for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction and Situational Awareness
Jonathan L Case
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-11 Lower Mississippi River Valley Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornado Environments and Radar Signatures
Ariel E Cohen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-12 An Investigation of Convection During the North American Monsoon Across Central and Southern Arizona, Part 1
Ariel E Cohen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-13 An Investigation of Convection During the North American Monsoon Across Central and Southern Arizona, Part 2
Jaret W Rogers
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-14 Preparing for the Future: Recommendations for NWS Training on GOES-R 1-Minute Satellite Imagery
Katie L Crandall
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-15 The Polar Vortex: A Climatic Feature Always Present, Once Ignored: A Comparison Study between the 2014 Events and Past Occurrences
Craig D Croskery
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-16 Geo-Targeted Tornado Warning Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA)
Dan Gonzales
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-17 Historical Dense Fog Event Impacts Phoenix Arizona and Sky Harbor International Airport, on 29 January - 1 February 2015 Surrounding Super Bowl Sunday
Charlotte L Dewey
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-18 Vertical profiles of radar parameters in heavy rain events resulting from elevated and surface based convection
Ryan J Difani
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-19 Applying Lessons Learned From the Joplin Tornado and Analyzing Response to Severe Weather Warnings
Matthew P Dross
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-20 Radar Trends of Significant Tornadoes Associated with Tornado Debris Signatures and Implication for Impact Based Warnings
Chad Entremont
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-21 Heatwaves in the Upper Red River Valley of the Southern Great Plains
Todd Lindley
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-22 A Realtime Weather-Adaptive Hybrid ensemble 3DVAR Analysis System with Automatic Storm Positioning and On-demand Capability
Jidong Gao
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-23 Pathfinder Road-Weather Collaboration Project: Providing Consistent Messaging Through Successful Partnerships in the Wyoming Weather Enterprise
Jeffrey F Garmon
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-24 Evaluation of Normalized Rotation (NROT) Associated With Tornadoes in the National Weather Service St. Louis County Warning Area
Fred H Glass
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-25 The Color Conundrum: The Many Variations of One Watch or Warning
Lynnette E Grant
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-26 Tornadoes Associated with an Absence of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning
Jared L Guyer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-27 A Synoptic Climatology of Philadelphia/Mt. Holly National Weather Service Office County Warning Area Winter Storms
Aaron N Haegele
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-28 NWS Forecaster Confidence and the Warning Decision Making Process
Jen Henderson
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-29 ENSO and PDO Climate Variabilities and Their Impacts on Regional Missouri Crop Yields
Chasity B Henson
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-30 Niche Agricultural Forecasting - Maple Sugaring
Roger R Hill
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-31 Objective probabilistic guidance for severe weather outbreaks
Michelle A Elmore
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-32 This poster has been moved to an oral presentation. It can be found in the Concurrent Session I: General Topics I session at 1:45 PM.

Utilizing Existing Meteorological Networks to Estimate Wet Bulb Globe Temperature as an Operational Tool for Heat Related ActivitiesBradley G Illston
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-33 WITHDRAWN
The Phoenix Rainfall Index - Update
Paul Iniguez
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-34 Measuring The California Drought
Paul, Iniguez
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-35 Comparison of 36-60 Hour Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing and Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
Eswar R Iyer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-36 Comparison of Convection-Allowing Ensembles during the 2015 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Israel L Jirak
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-37 Routine Weather With High Impact Results - Assessing the Message for an East Idaho Snowfall Event: March 3, 2015
John E Keyes
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-38 WITHDRAWN
NWS Severe Warning Verification and Evaluation Using MYRORSS Severe Weather Products
Darrel M Kingfield
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-39 Marine Decision Support Services for the Texas City Y Oil Spill
Brian Kyle
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-40 An Analysis of Tornadogenesis in Moore, Oklahoma, on 25 March 2015
Vivek N Mahale
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-41 Deterministic and Ensemble Storm-scale Lightning Data Assimilation
Edward R Mansell
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-42 WITHDRAWN
Improving MRMS Precipitation Estimation in the Western United States: Developing the Q3 Merged Product
Steven M Martinaitis
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-43 Effectiveness of the Pilot Project on Weather Communication in the Southeast US
Damon E Matson
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-44 WITHDRAWN
Atmospheric Contributors to Heavy Rainfall Events in the Arkansas-Red River Basin
Taylor A McCorkle
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-45 Using Social Media to Empower the Public's Decision Making
Stephen R Mullens
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-46 The Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms: Data Processing and Severe Weather-related Projects
Kiel L Ortega
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-47 WITHDRAWN
A Radar Reflectivity and Echo Top Climatology for the CONUS (2000-2011)
Kiel L Ortega
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-48 Evaluation of a Hail Size Discrimination Algorithm for the Polarimetric WSR-88D
Kiel L Ortega
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-49 Weather Impact Upon the Sales of a Local Mexican Restaurant
Justin D Pata
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-50 Using Total Lightning Data at the Aviation Weather Center/Aviation Weather Testbed
Brian Pettegrew
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-51 A case for gap-filling radars: the 29 September 2014 Severe Weather Event over southwest Colorado
Dennis D Phillips
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-52 Hail Reports on Social Media: A Spatiotemporal Comparison of Geo-tagged Twitter Reports, Local Storm Reports, and MESH data
Riely B Pickos
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-53 The NWS Louisville Flash Flood Hotspot Program
Erin E Rau
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-54 How Important are Pilot Reports to NWS Aviation Support?
Mike Richards
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-55 A Three Ingredients Approach to Anticipating Mesovortex Genesis
Jason S Schaumann
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-56 Everything You Always Wanted to Know about WPC Medium-range Forecasting
Michael L Schichtel
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-57 WITHDRAWN
A Radar-Based Hail Climatology for the CONUS (2000-2011)
Travis M Smith
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-58 Building a Database of Flash Flood Observations Using Twitter
Brandon R Smith
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-59 An Investigation of Thundersnow Events from Phoenix, AZ and Columbia, MO from 20-21 February 2013 from an Analytical and Modeling Perspective
Peter A Speck
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-60 An Index to Measure the Impact of Winter Weather In Support of the National Weather Service Weather-Ready Nation Initiative
Kyle C Struckmann
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-61 GNARRpy: A Python Module for Visualization of Archived Model Data
Benjamin A Toms
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-62 A Case Study of Polarimetric Radar Implementation Within Mountainous Regions: Rio Grande National Forest
Benjamin A Toms
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-63 PECAN Field Campaign: Analysis of Student Activities and Perception
Benjamin A Toms
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-64 Near-Surface Lapse Rate Variations Determined from Mobile Observations
Loren D White
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-65 Expanded Application of Surface Mobile Observing Techniques to Non-Severe Weather Environments
Loren D White
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-66 Translational Speed Effects on QLCS Tornado Debris Signature Heights
Brittney Whitehead
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-67 Threats-In-Motion (TIM): What If Tornado Warning Polygons Could Translate With The Hazard?
Peter L Wolf
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-68 A Preliminary Look at Multiple Potential Applications of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for the National Weather Service and Partner Agencies.
Peter L Wolf
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-69 A Customer-driven Winter Weather Operations Plan
Raymond A Wolf
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-70 Addressing Land-Surface Model Uncertainty in Convective-Scale Ensemble Forecasts
Jeff Duda
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

AP-71 High Temporal Resolution Ground-based Thermodynamic Profiling from Infrared Spectrometers
Dave Turner
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Concurrent II: Social Science & General Topics II: 4:30 – 5:30 PM

Time Social Science: Presentation & Presenter General Topics II: Presentation & Presenter
4:30 – 4:45 PM Eye-tracking during the Forecaster Warning Decision Process: A Pilot Experiment
Katie A Bowden
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Vertical Sidelobe Contamination of WSR-88D Velocity resulting in Tornado Warning False Alarms: Examples from the High Plains
Barry R Bowers
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

4:45 – 5:00 PM Reducing Losses from Less Significant Tornadoes: A Look at Homeowner Willingness to Pay for Structural Risk Mitigation and Support for the Adoption of Building Codes in Oklahoma
Joseph T Ripberger
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
The Value of High Resolution Damage Surveys
James G LaDue
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

5:00 – 5:15 PM Emergency Manager Severe Weather Information Needs and Use of Experimental Warning Information
Daphne S LaDue
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Tornadogenesis on 19 May 2013 in central Oklahoma as Seen by Nearby Radars
Donald W Burgess
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

5:15 – 5:30 PM Advocating Utilization of Communication Theory and Persuasion Empirical Studies as a Catalyst for Public Behavioral Response Relevant to Vehicle Operation in Severe Weather
G L Brookover
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
With Great Weather Comes Great Responsibility
Steven Kruckenberg
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Broadcaster Dinner: 7:30 PM

Information
Time Approximately 7:30 PM
Cost $25 (This additional payment is due upon meeting arrival.)
Location Abuelo's Mexican Restaurant
• Evening Ice Breaker in Norman, OK: 6:00 – 9:30 PM

Time Activity
6:00 – 6:30 PM Leave for Norman, OK
6:30 – 9:00 PM Walking Tour of NWA HQ, National Weather Center, & OU Research Campus
9:00 – 9:30 PM Return to Oklahoma City, OK

Tuesday, 20 October 2015

• Plenary III: 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Time Presentation & Presenter
8:00 – 8:30 AM Keynote: The Intersection of Science, Communication, and Compassion
James Spann
8:30 – 8:45 AM Redefining the Weather Ready University
Kevin Kloesel
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

8:45 – 9:00 AM Virtual Operations Support (VOS): A Working Model Within the National Weather Service The Supplemental Assistance Volunteer Initiative (SAVI) Team
Trevor M Boucher
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:00 – 9:15 AM Case Study: How atmospheric and computer science have created Forecast On Demand
Peter P Neilley
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:15 – 9:30 AM Using Video Chat for Weather Education
Jason Laney
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:30 – 9:45 AM Evolving Outdoor Safety through Preparedness Programs
Charlie Woodrum
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:45 – 10:00 AM Forecaster Decision-Making with Automated Probabilistic Guidance in the 2015 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment
Christopher D Karstens
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Coffee Break: 10:00 – 10:30 AM
• Concurrent III: Satellite & Drought/Fire: 10:30 – 12:00 PM

Time Satellite: Presentation & Presenter Drought/Fire: Presentation & Presenter
10:30 – 10:45 AM Himawari-8: Where We are and What's Ahead
Bill Ward
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
An Overview of the 2015 Fire Season
Heath Hockenberry
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

10:45 – 11:00 AM On the Use of 1-Minute Satellite Imagery in the Storm Prediction Center
William E Line
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
The Importance of Collaboration with the Current California Drought
Chris Stachelski
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:00 – 11:15 AM Using High-Temporal-Resolution Satellite Imagery in the Warning Decision-Making Process: A Forecaster's Perspective
Rebecca J Mazur
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Communicating CA Drought: A Case Study in NWS Weather Ready Nation & Decision Support Services
Brooke Bingaman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:15 – 11:30 AM Closing in on Launch: How are GOES-R and JPSS convective proxy products changing the forecast process at the Proving Ground for Marine, Precipitation, and Satellite Analysis?
Michael J Folmer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
An Evaluation of Meteorological and Antecedent Conditions Conducive to Southern Great Plains Wildfires
Todd Lindley
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:30 – 11:45 AM NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System's Proving Ground and Risk Reduction (PGRR) Program Initiatives - Responding to Real-World High-Impact Environmental Events!
Bill Sjoberg
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Using Ceilometer Data to Compare Mixing Height Calculations
Mark R Loeffelbein
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:45 – 12:00 PM Student Weather Briefing, Sponsor Presentations, & Announcements Student Weather Briefing, Sponsor Presentations, & Announcements
• Lunch: 12:00 – 1:30 PM

Supporting Women in Meteorology
Open to All; Additional Payment Required at Annual Meeting
Lunch On Your Own
Everyone Else
• Concurrent IV: NWP & Lightning: 1:30 – 3:00 PM

Time NWP: Presentation & Presenter Lightning: Presentation & Presenter
1:30 – 1:45 PM Impact of Assimilating MPEX Mobile Upsonde Observations on Short-Term Model Forecasts of Convection
Michael C Coniglio
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Lightning Characteristics and Relationship to Preliminary Local Storm Reports
Christopher J Melick
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

1:45 – 2:00 PM Storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles
Dustan M Wheatley
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Lightning Potential Index as a Real-time Decision Support Service over Public Lands
Paul R Frisbie
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:00 – 2:15 PM The Impact of Different Microphysics and Boundary Layer Parameterization on Storm-Scale Diagnostics
Joshua M Boustead
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Total Lightning R20 development and evaluation in the HWT and NWS
Kristin M Calhoun
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:15 – 2:30 PM Spatial Verification Methods for Ensemble Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation in Supercells
Patrick S Skinner
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Feedback on the Use of Earth Network's Total Lightning Data and Products in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
Tiffany C Meyer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:30 – 2:45 PM Using the WRF to Evaluate the Non-Supercell Tornado Parameter for the Green Bay Area Tornado Event of August 6th, 2013
Adam T Hirsch
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Flash Location, Size, and Rates Relative to the Kinematics and Microphysics of the 29 May 2012 DC3 Supercell Storm
Don Macgorman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:45 – 3:00 PM Utilization of Hyper-Local Weather Prediction to Increase Grid Resiliency and Accelerate Renewable Integration in Vermont
Rob D'Arienzo
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Early History of Using "Total Lightning" Information in National Weather Service Operations
Stephen J Hodanish
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Poster & Refreshments II: 3:00 – 5:00 PM

ID Presentation & Presenter
BP-1 A Review of the January 2015 Chatham County, GA Tornado and Associated Warning Challenges
Frank W Alsheimer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-2 WITHDRAWN
Warning Systems in Franklin County, OH: Toward a StormReady Community
John R Banghoff
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-3 Evolution of a NWS Weather Forecast Office to meet the call of a Weather Ready Nation
Jeffrey Barlow
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-4 Communicating CA Drought: A Case Study in NWS Weather Ready Nation & Decision Support Services
Brooke Bingaman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-5 Insights Regarding the Use of Ground-Based Spectral Infrared Thermodynamic Sounders in Forecasting Deep Convection
William G Blumberg
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-6 Virtual Operations Support (VOS): A Working Model Within the National Weather Service - The Supplemental Assistance Volunteer Initiative (SAVI) Team
Trevor M Boucher
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-7 Weather on Campus: Use of Social Media to Communicate Critical Weather Information
Ryan T Breton
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-8 "Do What I Say!...and What I Do": The role of weathercasts in modeling preparedness
Tyra L Brown
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-9 Curious Precipitation Curtains within the Inflow Region of a Supercell Thunderstorm
Rodger A Brown
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-10 GIS Products and Services at the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi, Texas
Michael Buchanan
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-11 Redefining the Excessive Rainfall Outlook at the Weather Prediction Center
Patrick C Burke
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-12 A Detailed Climatology of Central North Carolina Tornadoes
Raelene C Campbell
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-13 The Evolution of WSR-88D Dynamic Scanning
Joe N Chrisman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-14 Improving Decision Support Services, a rural area's perspective
Ray L Christensen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-15 Overview of the 2015 NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Adam J Clark
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-16 Using the High-Resolution NSSL-WRF Ensemble to Provide Hazard Guidance
Burkely T Gallo
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-17 Towards Hazard Services Recommenders for Flash Flood Forecasting
Robert A Clark III
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-18 Exploring Weather Forecast Office-Level Probabilistic Services for the Future
Kenneth R Cook
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-19 Use of model time lags and CIPS Analogs to assess severe weather risk using CWASP
Jeffrey P Craven
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-20 Improving Dry Season Thunder Forecasts at the Miami Weather Forecast Office
Christopher C Duke
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-21 Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS)
Michael T Eckert
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-22 NWS Aviation Decision Support for San Francisco Int'l Airport
Michael T Eckert
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-23 Prediction of Summer Stratus in San Francisco Bay Aided by Low-Level HYSPLIT Trajectories
Gary P Ellrod
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-24 Developing Interagency Partnerships to Improve the Red Flag Warning in Florida
Jeff Evans
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-25 The July 8, 2014 Significant Severe Weather Event in Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania Part 1: The Convective Environment, Pre-event Forecasting Challenges and Tools
Michael S Evans
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-26 The July 8, 2014 Significant Severe Weather Event in Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania Part 2: Examination of Legacy and Dual Polarization Radar Data
Michael S Evans
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-27 Explicit electrification and lightning forecast implemented within the WRF-ARW model.
Alexandre O Fierro
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-28 Utilizing Gradients to Forecast Gap Winds at Bordeaux, Wyoming
Zach O Finch
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-29 BRIDGING GAPS IN COASTAL HAZARD COMMUNICATION: COLOR-INDEXED ELEVATION MAPS FOR FLOOD--VULNERABLE COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN WESTERN ALASKA
Aimee M Fish
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-30 National Prototype of the Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook (EHWO): A Graphical Display of Weather Hazard Risk
Andy Foster
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-31 Updated Radar-Based Techniques for Tornado Warning Guidance in the Northeastern United States
Brian J Frugis
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-32 Hail Track and Size Prediction with Statistical Learning and Storm-Scale Ensembles
David J Gagne
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-33 A climatology of high-wind observations for the Great Plains from 1973 - 2014
Joshua M Gilliland
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-34 Effective Hurricane Messaging Across Eastern North Carolina
David A Glenn
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-35 Results from Evaluating Different GOES-R Scanning Strategies at the Operations Proving Ground
Chad M Gravelle
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-36 When Rainfall Matters: Providing Context for Precipitation Forecasts
Richard H Grumm
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-37 Effective Use of High Resolution Rapidly Updating Models in Predicting Convective Weather
Elyse M Hagner
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-38 Relationships between Winter Precipitation Events and Vehicular Accidents in the Louisville, Kentucky Metro Area
Sarah J Hannan
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-39 Use of Aviation Model Guidance for Ceilings and Visibilities to produced Digital Aviation Services at the NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office
Seth H Garland
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-40 2014 Carlton Complex: NWS Hydrologists on a Private-Land BAER Team
Spencer K Higginson
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-41 Tropical Cyclone Odile: Historic Flooding within a Long-Term Drought
Rick M Hluchan
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-42 Mesoscale Environmental Factors During the Camp Creek, Tennessee EF3 Tornado Event of April 27th, 2011
David G Hotz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-43 WITHDRAWN
Feeling in the Dark: How Working With Social Science Illuminates R2O
Susan Jasko
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-44 Providing Forecasters with Mesoscale Domain Options of the WRF-EMS for Enhancing Local Decision Support, Continuity of Operations, and Service Backup
Da'Vel R Johnson
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-45 Using Layered Precipitable Water and Other Satellite Derived Datasets to Anticipate High Impact Weather Events. Part 1: Heavy Precipitation Applications
Michael L Jurewicz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-46 Using an Inland Extent Forecasting Tool to Support Future Experimentation with National Weather Service Lake-Effect Snow Warning/Advisory Polygons
Michael L Jurewicz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-47 Using Dual Polarization Radar to Determine Supercell and QLCS Characteristics Just Prior to Tornadogenesis and Tornado Dissipation
Michael L Jurewicz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-48 Reliability of Precipitation Forecasts and Gridded Temperature Verification using BOIVerify at the Miami National Weather Service
Andrew J Kennedy
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-49 Future Observing Strategies for Short-Range Prediction of Severe Convective Storms
Steve E Koch
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-50 Rapid-Scan, Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells in the Context of Forecaster Conceptual Models
Charles M Kuster
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-51 Can Climate Reanalysis Improve Understanding of Climate Change?
Evan J Kutta
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-52 Visualizing NOAA National Weather Service Forecasts and Services In Southern California Through The Use of Esri Story Maps
Jayme L Laber
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-53 Results from GOES-R Proving Ground Demonstrations at the 2015 HWT Spring Experiment
William E Line
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-54 Tornado Warning Communication and Response
Heather A Lorenzen
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-55 The Evolution of Information Distribution for Catastrophic Flooding: 1996, 2011, and the Near Future - 2016
William J Marosi
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-56 Using Partner-Specific Rooms in NWSChat to Maximize Communication
Jennifer Y McNatt
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-57 Use of Crop Phenology in the Development of an impact catalog
Jerald Meadows
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-58 Improving MRMS Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probabilities
Tiffany C Meyer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-59 GOES-R Training Plan for NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Forecasters
Anthony Mostek
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-60 An objective model blending algorithm for temperature and dewpoint guidance
David T Myrick
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-61 The National Blend of Models Project: An update
David T Myrick
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-62 Approximating Wet-Bulb Temperature Using the One-Third Rule: Applications to High-Impact Winter Weather Events
David S Nevius
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-63 WITHDRAWN
An Examination of Significant Tornadoes Across the High Plains
Sam Ng
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-64 WITHDRAWN
Does storm chasing with trained professionals enhance students' classroom performance in other meteorological courses?
Sam Ng
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-65 Arizona H.E.A.T. Week: Heat Safety & Outreach Campaign for One of the "Hottest" Metropolitan Areas and Southwest States
Jessica M Nolte
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-66 New Approach on Decision Support Services for Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport
Jessica M Nolte
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-67 A Study of 12 Years of One-Minute Rain Rates Using a Geonor Vibrating-Wire Rain Gauge
Darrian M Noyes
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-68 Communicating Impact-Based Weather in Interior Northern California: A Look at NWS Sacramento's Innovations in Decision Support Services
Courtney E Obergfell
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-69 National Weather Service After Action Reviews: Who, What, When, and Why
Timothy Oram
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-70 The 8 September 2014 Devastating Flash Flood in Moapa Valley, Nevada
Dr. Michael Paddock
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-71 Decision Support Services and Impacts of the Flash Flood and Debris Flow in Mount Charleston, Nevada, 28 July 2014
Dr. Michael Paddock
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-72 An Investigation of IDF Curves for Rainfall across the Central Mississippi River Valley
Jordan L Rabinowitz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-73 Forecast Uncertainty: Giving A Great Weather Forecast Even When It's Unclear
Mike S Rawlins
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-74 Field Photo Weekends - Documenting Visual Impacts Over Time
Henry W Reges
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-75 Analysis of Observed Rainfall and Flooding Near the Schultz Fire Scar from 2010-2014
Robert J Rickey
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-76 Opportunities to Succeed with National Weather Service (NWS) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program
Peter B Roohr
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-77 The correlation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation to Tornado Occurrence in the Mid-South
Thomas L Salem Jr.
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-78 Exploring the Utility of Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts Using Non-Standardized Observations
Kristin Sherlock
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-79 COMAP 2015 – The SOO’s Evolving Role in Building a Weather Ready Nation
Marc J Singer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-80 Automated Detection of the Polarimetric Tornado Debris Signature
Jeffrey C Snyder
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-81 Creating a Realistic Operational Environment for Whole Office Training in the National Weather Service
Derrick W Snyder
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-82 Impact-based Decision Support Services Status Update
Charlie Woodrum
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-83 National Weather Service Detailed Hazards - Effective Communication of High-Impact Weather
Michael T Stavish
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-84 Utilizing MODIS Data For Ice Thickness Retrieval
Lance E Steele
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-85 Target the warnings: Probabilistic flash flood casualties prediction
Galateia Terti
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-86 Applicability of AERI, LiDAR, and Surface Mesonet Observations to the Resolving of Bore-Soliton Evolution
Benjamin A Toms
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-87 Developing Partnerships for Effective Aviation Weather Support
Jeffrey S Tongue
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-88 Lightning Activity in 2014 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Benjamin C Trabing
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-89 WITHDRAWN
The Effect of Western Michigan's Coastline on Heavy Rainfall
Sarah M Trojniak
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-90 Geospatial Analysis of Crime Rates in the Wake of Ivan
John A Troutman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-91 A GRIDDED SNOWFALL VERIFCATION METHOD USING ARCGIS
Joseph P Villani
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-92 Evaluating the WRF-EMS Performance During the 2015 Winter Weather Events across Northern Louisiana
Travis Washington
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-93 Throwing Caution to the Wind: A Weather Savvy Perspective on Wind Terminology and Wind-Related Damage
Castle A Williams
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-94 Residential Loss Costs in Relation to 2013 Moore EF-5 Tornado Path
Bryan H Wood
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-95 WITHDRAWN
24 Hours of Warnings: A Look into the Rare Long Duration May 10, 2012 Severe Weather Event in South Texas
Penny Zabel
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-96 Multiple Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms - Precipitation (MYRORSS-P)
Jian Zhang
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

BP-97 Revere Tornado 2014: The Classic Massachusetts Tornado Setup
Danielle Vollmar
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Committee Chair Dinner & Meeting with Council: 6:00 PM

Wednesday, 21 October 2015

• Plenary IV: 8:00 – 10:00 AM

Time Presentation & Presenter
8:00 – 8:30 AM Keynote: Environmental Intelligence: A Foundation for America's Future
Manson Brown, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction & Deputy Administrator for NOAA
8:30 – 8:45 AM NOAA's Warn on Forecast Project: Current Status and Future Plans
Louis J Wicker
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

8:45 – 9:00 AM Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): Overview, Plans and Early Impressions of a Proposed High-Impact Weather Forecasting Paradigm
Lans P Rothfusz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:00 – 9:15 AM The Evolving Role of the Operations Proving Ground in the National Weather Service Research-to-Operations Process
Kim J Runk
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:15 – 9:30 AM Recent Developments and Future Plans for Impact-based Research at the National Severe Storms Laboratory
Steve E Koch
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:30 – 9:45 AM The NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center: Future Plans and Challenges in Pursuit of a Weather Ready Nation
Russell S Schneider
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:45 – 10:00 AM Taking Weather-Ready Nation to the Next Level
Doug Hilderbrand on behalf of Laura K Furgione
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Coffee Break: 10:00 – 10:30 AM
• Concurrent V: DSS & Heavy Rain: 10:30 – 12:00 PM

Time DSS: Presentation & Presenter Heavy Rain: Presentation & Presenter
10:30 – 10:45 AM Warning, Response, and Risk Perception Issues Associated with Tornadoes in east-central Missouri and southwest Illinois on June 7, 2014
Fred H Glass
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Metwatch: The Weather Prediction Center's New Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Desk
Patrick C Burke
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

10:45 – 11:00 AM Helping Public Safety Officials Manage Oklahoma's Hazardous Weather: the New OK-First Weather Briefing Webpage
James E Hocker
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
An Index for Anticipating Excessive Precipitation with Elevated Thunderstorms
Alzina L Foscato
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:00 – 11:15 AM An Overview and Lessons Learned from National Weather Service Decision Support Services for the 2015 Super Bowl XLIX
Todd Lericos
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Environmental Parameters Associated with Heavy Rain Episodes in the Central Plains
David J Pearson
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:15 – 11:30 AM EMSA - A Prototype Method for Maintaining Weather-Related Situational Awareness within Emergency Operations Centers
Peter F Blottman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Using the Combined Neighborhood Approach and QPF-PoP relationship to Generating PoP Forecasts
Michael C Kochasic
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:30 – 11:45 AM Using Public Briefings to Expand Decision Support Services to Schools and the General Public
Erik M Heden
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Spatial and Temporal Distribution of "Heaviest Precipitation each Day" Based on CoCoRaHS Data
Chris K Spears
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:45 – 12:00 PM Student Weather Briefing, Sponsor Presentations, & Announcements Student Weather Briefing, Sponsor Presentations, & Announcements
• Awards Luncheon: 12:00 – 2:30 PM

Time Presentation & Presenter
30 Minutes Special Awards Luncheon Keynote: A Charter Member's 40 year Journey with the NWA
Steve Harned
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Posters & Refreshments III: 2:30 – 4:00 PM

ID Presentation & Presenter
CP-1 Warning Decision-Making Training Takeaways from the 2014 Multiple-Radar / Multiple-Sensor (MRMS) Severe Weather Products Best Practices Experiment in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
Alyssa V Bates
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-2 Western Region Mountain Wave Support Project
Scott Birch
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-3 The NWS Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) Role in Aviation Hazard Communication via Social Media
Scott Birch
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-4 The Optimization of the Weather Research and Forecast - Environmental Modeling System for an Extreme Rainfall Event in Southeast Texas
Patrick G Blood
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-5 MRMS QPE Performance during the 2014 Warm Season
Stephen B Cocks
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-6 Conducting Site Visits to Facilitate the Operations to Research Process with MRMS QPE
Stephen B Cocks
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-7 Operational Application of Total Lightning in AWIPS-2
Alan M Cope
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-8 Retrospective and Overview of the Storm Prediction Center
Roger Edwards
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-9 mPING Three Years Later
Kimberly L Elmore
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-10 Severe weather proxies in a simulated supercell thunderstorm responding to environmental perturbations induced by a nearby squall line
Adam J French
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-11 New Innovations in Severe Weather Detection and Communication Methods Utilized in the March 25, 2015 Oklahoma Tornadoes
Daniel R Gallagher
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-12 The potential for unnecessary casualties in hazard response-related traffic jams: the 31 May 2013 tornadoes near Oklahoma City
Gabe Garfield
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-13 Hazardous Weather Decision Support for Events in the Day 8 to 14 Time Frame
Alan E Gerard
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-14 Using Layered Precipitable Water and Other Satellite-Derived Datasets to Anticipate High-Impact Weather Events. Part II: Severe Weather Applications
Christopher M Gitro
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-15 An Expanded Analysis of BUFKIT Methodologies to Forecast Wind and Wind Gust Speed for the Upper Ohio River Valley
Thomas A Green, Jr.
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-16 Downslope Windstorms: Improving Forecast Skill for Cheyenne, Wyoming
Christopher L Hammer
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-17 Environmental Conditions Conducive for South-Central Texas Heavy Rainfall Events
Nicholas L Hampshire
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-18 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty: Methods Used by National Weather Service Pleasant Hill, Missouri in the 2015 Winter and Convective Seasons.
Daniel Hawblitzel
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-19 Cultivating Our Future Leaders: Improving Summer Internship Experiences
Erik M Heden
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-20 How to Successfully Expand Your Spotter Network
Erik M Heden
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-21 METEOROLOGICAL CASE STUDIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKE VICTIMS IN COLORADO
Stephen J Hodanish
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-22 A HIGH RESOLUTION LIGHTNING STROKE MAP OF THE STATE OF COLORADO
Stephen J Hodanish
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-23 The West Texas Virtual Operations Support Team: Helping to Find a Social Media Needle in a Hazardous Weather Haystack
Melissa S Huffman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-24 Probabilistic Hazard Information Processing System (PHIPS): Rapid Generation and Blending of Probabilistic Forecasts for Severe Convective Hazards
Christopher D Karstens
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-25 Elevated Thunderstorms Impacts on Surface Frontal Boundaries During PRECIP
Joshua S Kastman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-26 The mechanisms and local effects of heavy snow in interior valleys of Northwest California
Matthew K Kidwell
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-27 Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimates with Ground-based Radar Networks
Pierre Kirstetter
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-28 Issues in weather risk communication: acceptable risks and calls-to-action
Kimberly E Klockow
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-29 A preliminary consistency assessment between reported nonconvective wind magnitudes in Storm Data and local station measurements
John Knox
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-30 Case Study of a Deadly Wake Low-Caused Windthrow Event
John A Knox
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-31 It's Not Snowing at My House, A Case Study in Communicating Impacts and Probability
Jonathan T Kurtz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-32A Select High-Impact Weather Events in Southeast Alaska in Summer 2015: An Assessment of a Late Season Hurricane-Force Low Striking Southeast Alaska
Richard C Lam
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-32B Select High-Impact Weather Events in Southeast Alaska in Summer 2015: An Evaluation of the Heavy Rain Event for Sitka, Alaska on August 18, 2015
Richard C Lam
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-33 Developmental Work at the Storm Prediction Center in Pursuit of Tornadic Supercell Probability and Tornado Intensity Estimation Using a Severe Supercell Dataset - A Social Science Perspective
Elizabeth M Leitman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-34 Stability Tendency during Elevated Convection Events with Heavy Rainfall
Patrick S Market
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-35 Application of the Three Ingredients Method to QLCS Tornado Warning Decisions at NWS Bismarck
James M Mathews
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-36 Using machine learning techniques to investigate tornadogenesis
Amy McGovern
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-37 Weather Camp and Meteorology Careers: Connecting Childhood Passion to Occupational Choices
Andrea Dawn Melvin
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-38 The Weather Warning Communication Network Process
Laura Myers
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-39 Heatstroke Deaths of Children in Vehicles
Jan Null
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-40 Assessing the significance of "mini tornado alleys" in the observational record
Corey K Potvin
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-41 Sensitivity of idealized supercell simulations to horizontal grid spacing: Implications for Warn-on-Forecast
Corey K Potvin
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-42 The Incredible Winter Weather in February 2015 across the Eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians
Andrew M Pritchett
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-43 A real-time automated quality control of hourly rain gauge data based on multiple sensors in MRMS system
Youcun Qi
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-44 Storm Processes Depicted by the WSR-88D and KOUN Sector Scans during Severe Pulse Thunderstorms
Pamela Heinselman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-45 WITHDRAWN
A five year climatology of forecast errors of tornado tracks using manual extrapolation
Kevin A Scharfenberg
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-46 Southeast Montana's Rare EF3: Predicting and Warning for the Carter County Tornado
Chauncy J Schultz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-47 The Historic Cumberland Plateau Ice Storm of February 20-21, 2015
Samuel W Shamburger
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-48 The JPSS Proving Ground and Risk Reduction Program (PGRR) Initiatives - Making the Difference in Operations
Bill Sjoberg
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-49 What We've Learned in the Southeast US on When People Take Action During Hazardous Weather Events
Jim Stefkovich
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-50 The High Latitude Satellite Proving Ground: Generating Cutting-Edge Satellite Products to Meet Operational Needs in Alaska
Eric L Stevens
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-51 The NSSL Multiple-Radar / Multiple-Sensor (MRMS) Algorithm System: First Year of NWS Operations
Greg Stumpf
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-52 New Verification Techniques for FACETs: What Do False Alarm Area and Lead Time Really Mean in the Realm of Probabilistic Hazard Information?
Greg Stumpf
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-53 Accidents highlighting the importance of communicating and using Pilot Reports in the NAS
Paul Suffern
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-54 Case Study of the Atmospheric Vortices from the Eiler Fire
Pamela J Szatanek
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-55 CIRA's NWS Proving Ground activities as we approach the launch of GOES-R
Edward J Szoke
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-56 Improvement and Verification of Total Water Level Forecasting in the Maryland Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River
Katelyn Thomas
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-57 Best Practices for Communicating Risk and Uncertainty for High Impact Weather Events at the National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office
Kenneth R Widelski
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-58 Retrieving damaging vortex winds form radar observed tornadic mesocyclones for nowcast applications
Qin Xu
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

CP-59 Saying What We, As Meteorologists, Really Mean
H. Michael Mogil
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Concurrent VI: RADAR & Winter Weather: 4:00 – 5:30 PM

Time RADAR: Presentation & Presenter Winter Weather: Presentation & Presenter
4:00 – 4:15 PM Integrating High Resolution Ground Radar and Satellite Observations for Rapidly Updating Precipitation Estimates in Data Sparse Regions
Heather M Grams
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Convectively Assisted Explosive Extratropical Cyclogenesis: The Surprisingly Strong Southern New England Cyclone of 9 December 2005
Lance F Bosart
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

4:15 – 4:30 PM Monitoring severe thunderstorm environments from high temporal observations from GOES, radar and lightning sensors
Robert M Rabin
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Discrimination of surface hydrometeor type using spectral bin microphysics
Heather D Reeves
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

4:30 – 4:45 PM Advantages of Rapid-Scan Phased Array Radar Data During a Severe Hail and Wind Event from a Warning Forecaster's Perspective
Charles M Kuster
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Impact of Convection on Snowfall Evolution during a Winter Storm
Jeffrey A Chapman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

4:45 – 5:00 PM Dual-polarization radar analysis of flash flooding at Caprock Canyons State Park in northwest Texas
Mark R Conder
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
A Climatology of Southern Appalachian Cold Air Damming
Jared A Rackley
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

5:00 – 5:15 PM WSR-88D Radar Rainfall Estimation - Present and Near Future
Daniel S Berkowitz
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
When to Depart from Model Guidance - case study: The February 16-17, 2015 North Georgia Ice Storm
Keith M Stellman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

5:15 – 5:30 PM Automated ZDR Column Detection: Algorithm Description and Examples
Jeffrey C Snyder
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Maintaining Situational Awareness and Communicating Uncertainty Associated with Banded Snowfall
Matthew A Dux
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Special Evening Session I: 7:00 – 9:00 PM

Time Presentation & Presenter
6:30 – 8:00 PM Reception & Cash Bar
7:15 – 7:45 PM A Review of Significant Weather Events Occurring in 2015
Greg Carbin
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

7:45 – 8:00 PM The 1925 Tri-State Tornado: What if it happened today?
Patrick J Spoden
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

8:00 – 8:15 PM How Tornadoes and Severe Weather affected the North and South during the Civil War
Timothy W Troutman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

8:15 – 8:30 PM World Record 100.8" snowfall in 18 hours - Capracotta, Italy?
Ashton G Peyrefitte, Jr.
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

8:30 – 8:45 PM Anatomy of a Historical "Live Tweet" Event - The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald
Steven R Fleegel
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

8:45 – 9:00 PM Flood of a lifetime: Columbia, South Carolina and surrounding areas
Henry Rothenberg
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Council Dinner & Business Meeting: 5:30

Thursday, 22 October 2015

• Plenary V: 8:00 – 10:00 AM

Time Presentation & Presenter
8:00 – 8:30 AM Keynote: Title TBA
Elbert W (Joe) Friday, NWS Director (Ret.) & OU Professor Emeritus
8:30 – 8:45 AM Those Rare, Heavy Rainfall Events are not so Rare Anymore: The Impacts of Increasingly Common Heavy Rainfall Events in Iowa
Jeffrey A Zogg
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

8:45 – 9:00 AM A Retrospective Look at 40 Years of Severe Weather Forecasting Progress
Steven J Weiss
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:00 – 9:15 AM R2O and O2R between NSSL and the SPC: The benefits of collocation
Jack Kain
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:15 – 9:30 AM Reflections on 25 Years of Contributions to Operational Training by the COMET Program
Elizabeth M Page
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:30 – 9:45 AM The Tennessee Valley Historical Tornado Research Project
Tim Troutman
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

9:45 – 10:00 AM A Retrospective Look at the Great Armistice Day Storm of 1940: Using Numerical Modeling to Simulate Conditions on the Great Lakes during this Fateful Storm
Michael R Dutter
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Coffee Break: 10:00 – 10:30 AM
• Concurrent VII: Aviation & Social Science: 10:30 – 12:00 PM

Time Aviation: Presentation & Presenter Social Science: Presentation & Presenter
10:30 – 10:45 AM Providing Enhanced Decision Support Services to McCarran International Airport
Chris Outler
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Social Science Applications for Weather Enterprise Research
Laura Myers
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

10:45 – 11:00 AM NWS Decision Support at the FAA - Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC)
Michael T Eckert
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Social Science Applications for Weather Enterprise Research
Vankita Brown
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:00 – 11:15 AM Icing Related General Aviation Accidents Located in Areas of Increased Differential Reflectivity
Paul Suffern
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Social Science Applications for Weather Enterprise Research
Susan Jasko
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:15 – 11:30 AM The LAMP/HRRR Meld For Aviation Forecasting
Bob Glahn
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Social Science Applications for Weather Enterprise Research
Jen Henderson
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:30 – 11:45 AM Digital Aviation Services
Cammye Sims
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster
Social Science Applications for Weather Enterprise Research
Discussion & Questions
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

11:45 – 12:00 PM Student Weather Briefing, Sponsor Presentations, and Announcements Student Weather Briefing, Sponsor Presentations, and Announcements
• Lunch: 12:00 – 1:30 PM
• Plenary VI: 1:30 – 3:00 PM

Time Presentation & Presenter
1:30 – 1:45 PM Marine Meteorologist Role in Risk Reduction of Offshore Operations
Kristi Parrott
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

1:45 – 2:00 PM Preliminary Results from a Study on the Environments of Thunderstorms Over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Alaska
Jonathan M Garner
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:00 – 2:15 PM Tropical Storm Arthur - The First Test of a Revised National Weather Service Post Tropical Transition Policy
Richard J Okulski
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:15 – 2:30 PM The 2014 Eastern Pacific Tropical Season: A look at the High Impacts on Arizona and the Challenges, Successes and Lessons Learned
Glenn Lader
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:30 – 2:45 PM Hurricane Arthur, July 2014: A case study in using disparate weather sources to reconstruct a weather event
Alicia Wasula
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

2:45 – 3:00 PM Improving Hurricane Impacts Messaging through Integrated Warning Team Workshops
Scott A Overpeck
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

• Refreshments: 3:00 – 3:30 PM
• Plenary VII: 3:30 – 5:00 PM

Time Presentation & Presenter
3:30 – 3:45 PM New Tools for Flash Flood Forecasting in the National Weather Service
Jonathan J Gourley
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

3:45 – 4:00 PM Application of Earth Remote Sensing Imagery in the NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit
Kelsey T Angle
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

4:00 – 4:15 PM Preliminary Damage Path Tool for FEMA and First Responders
Jennifer Y Mcnatt
Abstract | Extended Abstract | Presentation/Poster

4:15 – 4:30 PM Concluding Remarks

4:30 PM Adjourn Until 10 September 2016 in Norfolk, VA
NWA Annual Meeting Program Committee

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